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Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Greater Zab River, Iraq : Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Greater Zab River, Iraq

机译：气候变化对伊拉克大扎布河水资源的影响：气候变化对伊拉克大扎布河水资源的影响

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Greater Zab is the largest tributary of the Tigris River in Iraq where the catchment area is currently being plagued by water scarcity and pollution problems. Contemporary studies have revealed that blue and green waters of the basin have been manifesting increasing variability contributing to more severe droughts and floods apparently due to climate change. In order to gain greater appreciation of the impacts of climate change on water resources in the study area in near and distant future, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has been used. The model is first tested for its suitability in capturing the basin characteristics, and then, orecasts from six GCMs (general circulation models) with about half-a-century lead time to 2046~2064 and one-century lead time to 2080~2100 are incorporated to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources under three emission scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1. The results showed worsening water resources regime into the future.
机译：大扎卜是伊拉克底格里斯河的最大支流，该流域目前正因缺水和污染问题而受到困扰。当代研究表明，流域的蓝色和绿色水域已显示出不断增加的变异性，显然是由于气候变化而导致更严重的干旱和洪水。为了在不久的将来更加了解气候变化对研究区域水资源的影响，使用了SWAT（土壤和水评估工具）。首先测试该模型在捕获盆地特征方面的适用性，然后，从六个GCM（一般循环模型）进行的矿石勘探，其提前期到2046〜2064有半个世纪，而一个世纪的交货期则是2080〜2100。在三个排放情景下，评估气候变化对水资源的影响：A1B，A2和B1。结果表明，未来水资源状况将恶化。

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